Everything is a model

"Trusting the process" is risky.

We exist in a complex world with billions of people and systems that don't always follow the same rules. Unlike carbon atoms, Humans learn, adapt, and do crazy things. Modelling social processes such as economies, political systems, or behaviour can only provide a modest glimpse of the variation that exists in the world. It takes several lenses and maps to fully understand the world. Models are lenses.

It can be risky to trust your gut, but we do it every day. From high-impact decisions like career choices to the seemingly insignificant, like where to go for dinner, the quality of your thinking and decision-making depends on the models that are available in your toolkit.

The biggest obstacle to learning and evolving from contact with reality is ourselves. There are three main reasons for this failure: lack of perspective, ego-induced denial, and distance from the consequences of decisions.

Like driving a truck, the person with the fewest blind spots is safe. Removing blind spots means we see, interact with, and move closer to understanding reality. This helps us better, and thinking better is about finding simple processes that help us work through problems from multiple dimensions.

What is a model? 

Models are chunks of knowledge from different disciplines that can be simplified and applied to better understand the world. they help identify what information is relevant in any given situation, and the most reasonable parameters to work in.

We use models every day, even when we're not generally aware of them. People around me are accustomed to hearing me say, "I'll run it through a model." When they need me to decide on a solution. This is because I think of models as adjustable algorithms.

To make sense of complex processes, we need many lenses. Models are toolkits for better understanding the world.

Applying models

By default, engineers think in terms of systems, psychologists think in terms of incentives. A startup founder might think in terms of opportunity cost and risk-reward. By following our specialised disciplines, We obtain a view of the world that makes sense to us, but we cannot see the full picture until we start to think in a multidisciplinary way.

There is an old adage that encapsulates this: “To the man with only a hammer, everything starts looking like a nail.”

In order to see the real nature of a problem, first, we must break down its components, so that the interconnections can be seen. Accurately describing the situation is the first step to understanding it.

We are vulnerable when we cannot shift our perspective by integrating knowledge from a range of disciplines. The more we can draw on the diverse knowledge contained in these models, the more solutions will present themselves.

Six Models

There are hundreds, maybe thousands of models out there, and anyone who is great at thinking can create a model (as long as it's falsifiable).

I've put together a compressed list of some of the go-to models in my personal toolkit.

1. The Map is not the Territory - the description of the thing is not the thing itself. Reality is the ultimate update.

This is the first and most important model because not only is it a model, it also helps us approach other models, maps, and reductions.

The map of reality is not reality. Even the best maps are imperfect. That’s because they are reductions of what they represent.

When we mistake the map for reality, we begin to think we have all the answers. We create static rules or policies based on the map, but we forget that reality is constantly changing. When we close off feedback loops, it's impossible to see landscape changes and reduce our ability to adapt. 

Reality is messy and complex, so our tendency is to simplify it, but if the aim becomes simplification rather than understanding, we begin to make bad decisions.

In order to use a map or model as accurately as possible, we must carefully consider that reality is the ultimate update.

2. First Principles Thinking - Postulate, hypothesis, and principle.

First-principles thinking is a popular approach to problem-solving. It’s a great way to reverse-engineer complicated situations and unleash creative possibility.

In mathematics and logic, a first principle is an axiom that cannot be deduced from any other within that system. having a solid understanding of the first principles of anything allows you to construct the rest of your knowledge around it to produce something new.

When it comes down to it, everything that is not a law of nature is simply a shared belief; Money, governments, institutions, romance, bitcoin, religion, etc.

If we want to identify the principles in a situation to cut through the dogma and the shared belief, deconstruct it by asking these 4 questions.

What do you know to be the truth?

Why is it the truth?

How does something become true?

What separates opinion from the truth?

The goal of this type of questioning is not introspection, (why do I feel like this?) Rather, it is about methodically delving further into a statement or concept to separate reliable knowledge from assumption.

If your “whys” result in a statement of falsifiable fact, you have hit the first principle. If they end up with a “because I said so” or ”it just is”, you know you have landed on an assumption that may be based on popular opinion, cultural myth, or dogma. These are not first principles.

3. Relativity - Bias Bias Bias 

I borrowed this model from physics. Relativity has been used in several contexts, but the important aspect to study is the idea that an observer cannot truly understand a system if they are a part of it.

In the 1920s, Einstein introduced the concept of "time dilation" while riding on a train. He realised the faster you moved in space, the slower you were moving through time. For example, a man in an airplane does not feel like he is experiencing movement, but an outside observer will see movement. Relativity affects social systems in a similar way.

A common conclusion to disagreements is "agree to disagree" since it is believed that "everything is relative anyway" - it implies that everyone believes in their own truths and there are no absolute truths.

If you're the outside observer, relativity does not mean that the person who is in motion is wrong when they perceive time differently. They do not have to agree with you. You are both experiencing time differently and neither of you have an accurate understanding.

Perspective and relativity are everything. 

4. Inversion - Begin at the end

Inversion is a powerful method for identifying and removing obstacles. The root of inversion is “invert,” upend or turn upside down. As a thinking tool, it requires approaching a situation from the opposite end of the natural starting point. Inversion allows us to flip the problem around and look at it from the other direction. Sometimes it is helpful to start at the beginning, but it can be more useful to start at the end.

There are two approaches to applying inversion to problems

1. Begin by assuming that what you're trying to prove is either true or false, then show what else would have to be true.

2. Instead of aiming directly for your goal, think deeply about what you want to avoid and then see what options are leftover. Clarity through contrast.

5. Ecosystems - Everything is part of the whole

An ecosystem describes any group of organisms coexisting with the natural world. Most ecosystems show diverse forms of life taking on different approaches to survival, with such pressures leading to varying behaviour. Social systems can be seen in the same light as natural ecosystems and many of the same conclusions can be made.

Systems are made up of groups of interacting parts. These parts form a unified whole that is directed towards a specific goal. This whole has widely differing properties that are greater than the sum of its component parts. a small change to one part can have an outsized and unpredictable effect on the whole system.

Whether you realise it or not, you are an essential participant in many systems. Your organisations, communities, and relationships. You are an incomprehensibly complex biological system comprising many smaller systems, which are in turn composed of smaller systems all the way down to the cellular, molecular, and quantum levels.

6. Compounding - Ad infinitum

This is one of my favourites.

Compounding is the process by which we add interest to a fixed sum, which then earns interest on the previous sum and the newly added interest, and then earns interest on that amount, and so on ad infinitum.

It is an exponential effect, rather than a linear, or additive, effect. Money is not the only thing that compounds; ideas and relationships do as well. In tangible realms, compounding is always subject to physical limits and diminishing returns; intangibles can compound more freely. Compounding also leads to the time value of money, which underlies all of modern finance.

• Investments - Savings accounts compound and grow over time due to accumulated interest.

• Habits - Exercising regularly pays off over time into improved health metrics and physical form.

• Skills & Expertise - Focused practice on a skill or in an area of expertise compound over time into mastery.

• Relationships - Investing in friendships, communities, and romantic relationships compounds into strong social support.

The world is full of complications and interconnections that can only be explained through an understanding of multiple models.

We cannot predict which problems will inevitably crop up in life, but we can learn time-tested ideas that help us prepare for whatever reality throws at us. 

Building a habit of relying on systems can help us identify patterns, mitigate risks and create pathways for understanding reality and having a positive life experience.

Thanks for reading,

I write and share ideas on creativity, problem-solving, systems of thought, extended reality and our place in the singularity.

I also host fireside chats on Clubhouse, Twitter spaces and VRChat every now and then.

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